To Open or Not
There is a solid case on both sides of this argument. If we look beyond the news reports which are trying to persuade us one option is better than the other it would be quickly recognized that the true solutions lie somewhere in between opening without restrictions and staying closed until no new infections occur or a vaccine is available.
That’s not taking a centrist position if one considers the duty of each side they would probably arrive at the same conclusion.
From a purely medical/scientific perspective, the country should be kept closed because the burden of proof that communities have the virus is under control hasn’t been met. Testing capacity has increased since the pandemic started, but not to the level where it readily available and could be administered to anyone and everyone. Next, the rate of infections hasn’t declined in most communities proportionate with the threshold established by the Center for Disease Control for easing restrictions.
From a purely economic perspective, the U.S. economy has suffered great harm. According to Bloomberg, the unemployment rate has jumped from 3.5% in February to 14.7% in April. The Department of Commerce projects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had decreased by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020. Several businesses have filed for bankruptcy as revenue dramatically decreased with many Americans staying at home.
We cannot look at these positions as independent entities. Both of them are greatly intertwined. The decline in the GDP is directly related to the country shutting down. The shutdown was needed to ensure infection rates didn’t overwhelm the available medical capacity. Although this wasn’t the case in some locations. The shutdown also allowed a sort of cooling-off period where leaders could decide how to proceed knowing what is known about the transmission of the disease.
This knowledge of how the disease is transmitted and protective measures to mitigate the spread is utilized to allow the American people to resume their lives. Remaining close until a vaccine is developed is not a practical option for many reasons, most importantly the average worker doesn’t have an emergency fund to cover 3 to 6 months on expenses, much less 12 months or more. Prolong closure would also result in the failure of a large number of businesses resulting in a record unemployment rate and pushing the country into a depression.
I think most would agree easing restrictions and implementing protective measures, social distancing, and wearing nose and mouth covering, is the best medium to long-term option.
Just opening the country and not considering the health implications of the virus would be a mistake. Keeping the country closed without considering the long-term economic impact on individuals, families, and businesses is also a mistake.